On Saturday, February 8th, the people of the Republic of Ireland went to the polls to decide which party or parties will guide the country\u2019s future for the next chunk of time\u2014up to 5 years. <\/span>
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\nThe votes are still being counted as I write this, however it seems clear at this point that Sinn F\u00e9in had a very good day. There is a near three-way tie among Fine Gael, Fianna F\u00e1il, and Sinn F\u00e9in. Independents pulled in about 11% of the vote, and the Greens also had their best-ever showing. Labour, by its own admission, got pounded at the polls. So, too, did the rampant bigotry pushed by Gemma O\u2019Doherty\u2019s \u201cAnti-Corruption Ireland\u201d and Ceannaire Justin Barrett\u2019s Irish National Party. <\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nWhat does Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s surge mean for Ireland? Most immediately, the popularity of SF in this election indicates a strong preference for progressive policies on social and economic issues.<\/span>
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\nSinn F\u00e9in\u2019s surge is not an indication that Irish unity is around the corner. Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s boost in the polls was largely among younger voters. These voters, mostly in their 20s, are far removed from the revolutionary generation, and don\u2019t necessarily choose their political allegiances based on what side their ancestors fought for in the Civil War from 1922-23. Moreover, Sinn F\u00e9in has adopted a host of progressive social policies that have nothing to do with the \u201cnational question,\u201d its raison d\u2019\u00eatre. Most notably, Sinn F\u00e9in takes a liberal stance on women\u2019s rights and the rights of LGBTQ+ people, issues on which young people are almost universally more liberal than older people. <\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nSinn Fein\u2019s manifesto addresses issues that are important to young people, who likely don\u2019t earn as much money as more experienced professionals. Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s has pledged to abolish the USC on the first \u20ac30,000. They have also embraced the politics of climate change, and have vowed to invest an additional \u20ac1bn in public transportation in order to cut down on pollution from cars. <\/span>
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\nSinn F\u00e9in has shown that the party understands how the electorate is changing. Ireland\u2019s two entrenched parties, FG and FF, will not be Ireland\u2019s future if they cannot understand the importance of generational change. In addition, Sinn F\u00e9in also understands that people vote with their emotions, not an intellectual evaluation of the various parties\u2019 manifestos. Countless political science and psychology studies have demonstrated this trend\u2014here\u2019s one<\/a>, for example.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nI would be interested to see which factors people name in explaining their votes. Because, back to Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s raison d\u2019\u00eatre, the party has also pledged to pursue Irish unity by producing a White Paper on the subject and by pushing for a border poll. I\u2019m pretty sure that this factor is NOT the deciding factor for many people who voted for the Shinners. But, when you support Sinn F\u00e9in, you know that you\u2019re also supporting their goal of holding a border poll within five years. At the very least, their policies on Irish unity were not a deterrent\u2014nor was the party\u2019s history as the \u201cpolitical wing of the IRA.\u201d Other political parties in Ireland need to wake up.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nOf course, Sinn F\u00e9in signed up to the so-called \u201cunionist veto\u201d when it signed on to the Good Friday Agreement. So, Irish unity can only occur with the consent of a majority of the people in the Republic of Ireland and a separate, concurrent majority of the people of Northern Ireland. <\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nThat means, for my American readers, that we\u2019re not dealing with a majority of people on the island of Ireland\u2014which is, historically, the majority that Sinn F\u00e9in cares about, tracing the mandate back to the election of 1918. <\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nIs there a majority in Northern Ireland in favor of Irish unity? I seriously doubt it. The national question is still very much alive in the North, and it still has potency that it lacks in the south of Ireland. See, for example, the 3-year governmental vacuum because Sinn F\u00e9in and the DUP wouldn\u2019t agree on basic principles of equality. I personally think Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s shifts on abortion and same-sex marriage are tied to a desire to pull socially liberal unionists into the view that their \u201cnatural\u201d home is in a 32-county republic, and for that reason, I tend not to trust the Shinners. If one\u2019s platform is based on cynical political expediency, and not genuine belief, they will just as quickly change their tune once their goal of unity is accomplished, or once they are entrenched in power.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nI say this, moreover, because Sinn F\u00e9in is not known for being a particularly democratic party in its internal operations. Although I do support an anti-imperialist platform, and therefore I support Irish unity, I have serious qualms about trusting Irish unity to Sinn F\u00e9in.<\/span><\/p>\n

No matter how you see it, though, this general election signals a major change in the politics in the Republic of Ireland. The challenge that the three major parties have now is in forming a government, as no one has anything close to a majority. Some parties still say they will not form a coalition with the Shinners; others will. Those parties that refuse to govern with Sinn F\u00e9in refuse at their own risk\u2014it seems to me that any government that does NOT include the Shinners is not a democratic representation of the people\u2019s wishes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Put Sinn F\u00e9in in government and let\u2019s see how they run the country.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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